Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment |
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Page 151
... predictions give weight both to the score on the predictor variable and to the mean of the variable to be predicted ... prediction . Laboratory Demonstrations of Nonregressive Prediction Strategies The layperson's inability to Prediction 151.
... predictions give weight both to the score on the predictor variable and to the mean of the variable to be predicted ... prediction . Laboratory Demonstrations of Nonregressive Prediction Strategies The layperson's inability to Prediction 151.
Page 154
... prediction and usually fail to make predictions that reflect outcome base rates and regression considerations . It is important to be specific about what those conditions are . Almost all research on prediction has been characterized by ...
... prediction and usually fail to make predictions that reflect outcome base rates and regression considerations . It is important to be specific about what those conditions are . Almost all research on prediction has been characterized by ...
Page 156
... predictions in many everyday life situations may be more " regressive ” than past research has implied . They would be more hopeful if they provided any indication that such relatively accurate predictions reflected any understanding of ...
... predictions in many everyday life situations may be more " regressive ” than past research has implied . They would be more hopeful if they provided any indication that such relatively accurate predictions reflected any understanding of ...
Contents
inferential problems and the formal scientific | 8 |
summary | 15 |
the representativeness heuristic | 24 |
Copyright | |
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ability accuracy accurate actor Amos Tversky assessment attribution theory availability heuristic base rates base-rate behavior beliefs bias biased causal analysis causal attribution causal explanations causal theories causes chapter characterization classical conditioning cognitive colleagues concrete condition consensus information correlation covariation Daniel Kahneman Daryl Bem debriefing demonstration diagnostic domain effects estimates everyday evidence example experience experimental failure formal fundamental attribution error given human hypothesis Illusory correlation impact implications important individual inferences inferential strategies inferential tasks influence intuitive scientist judgments Kahneman knowledge structures layperson less likelihood manipulations motivational Nisbett and Wilson normative object observers one's outcomes particular people's perception perseverance person preconceptions predictions predictor primacy effects probably probative problems processes psychology question regression relatively relevant reported representativeness heuristic response Ross sample sample bias schema script seems simple situation Social Psychology sometimes sophomore slump statistical stereotypes stimuli target tendency tion Tversky typical variable versus vivid information