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Sec. 1. Introductory
2. Specialization in commercial risk taking-
The merchandizing function -
The speculator's concern..
The speculator's possible service-
3. Stabilization of prices---
How speculation may stabilize prices..
Question of stabilization.-
4. Unification and broadening of grain markets.
Difference in price in place and in time_-
Connection of markets by way of future quotations.-
Futures as a world market----
Broadening effect of deferred delivery-
5. Speculation described and defined --
Speculation as an open commitment in futures---
Holding of unhedged grain as speculation..
The general situation and its relation to the producer's
The elevator's position ----
The manufacturer's position..
Special reasons for hedging by grain merchants_
A simple definition---
6. Development of speculative facilities_
7. Varieties and characteristics of speculation.
The speculator's trading further distinguished..
Shorts and longs--
8. Classes that speculate--
The appetite for speculation..
The professional operators.
Speculation by outsiders..
9. Trading elements in the grain futures markets.
Classification of members.
Cash grain handlers_
Local futures business_.
10. Concrete view of speculation..
Time intervening between purchases and sales_.
Financial resources of speculators---
Degree of competence of speculators_
Adjustment of supply and demand..
Sec. 1. Hedging described---
The hedging of bets_
Relation of hedging to delivery on futures---
Hedging one grain in another.---
Sec. 2. Hedging as the justification of future trading-
Hedging in relation to scale of operations.
General significance of hedging--
Hedging in relation to periodicity of supply
The part of the speculator---
3. Illustrations of hedging by specific concerns.
Life of open trades for elevators and mills_
Computed average life of open trades_---
Indicated volume hedged--
Use of various markets -
Use of the options_---
4. Hedging practices of flour mills_-
Hedging by mills in various geographical sections_.
Opposing theories on mill hedging-
5. The use of futures by exporters--
General characteristics of exporters' hedges.
Other uses of futures by exporters_
6. Commercial and territorial extent of hedging--
Sources of hedging with reference to its distribution among
Country elevators—Northwest contrasted with Southwest-
Hedging to protect third parties.--.
Proportion of hedging country elevators by States..
7. Strict-rule hedging
Equating the quantity of cash and future commitments..
Simultaneity of opposite transactions_
Waiting for a price----
Net position of a large mill from week to week..
November 30 position data---
Extent of hedging by rule----
The argument from averaging-
Hedge market --
Relation of the opportunity to hedge to price fluctuations.-
8. Commercial judgment and hedging--
Hedging practices in relation to expected price changes..
Hedging in relation to discounts on futures..
Hedging in relation to visible supplies.-
Policies of a large elevator merchandiser-.
Hedging as a sort of spreading-
The shifting of hedges----
The choice of a futures market.
The choice between options----
9. Substitutes for hedging in futures_
To arrive sales.--
Synchronized cash purchases and cash sales.
Economy in utilizing future sales..
10. Border-line hedging-
Substitution of futures for cash grain holdings_
Contracting the crop ahead..
“Overhedging" and cognate speculation.
11. Conditions for the correct functioning of hedging-
Hedging risks and losses compared with mercantile risks and
Insurance different from hedging-----
12. Hedges as a means of obtaining and disposing of grain.
Relation of hedging to deliveries on futures.-
Instance of large deliveries on hedge sales.-
Taking delivery on hedge purchases ---
13. Services and costs of hedging---
Stabilization of profits---
Hedging in the service of competition.-
The price paid for the hedging service_-
CHAPTER III.-SCALPING AND SPREADING
Sec. 1. Nature and effect of pit scalping--
Relation of pit scalping to hedging-
Difference between scalpers and speculators--
Economics of the scalping process.-
Scalpers as a factor in the smallness of price changes.
The relation of scalping to prices---
2. The pit scalping business---
Association of execution of trades for others with scalping--
Earnings of scalpers..
Taxes in relation to scalping.
Pit scalpers as customers..
3. General economy of scalping---
Alleged unfair advantages of the scalper.
Possible economic waste in scalping--
Incomplete conformity to the requirements of speculative
4. Spreading in general.
5. Spreading between markets---
Technical conditions affecting price differences.-
The handling of spread orders--
Sources of spreading trade---
The volume of spreading operations..
Function of inter-market spreading-
6. Spreading between options_-
Spreading between options relating to the same crop-
Elevators as factors in interoption spreading--
Spreading between options relating to different crops--
7. Other spreading operations---
Spreading between grains.
Spreading between round lots and job lots.-
Spreading in cash grain----
8. Operations in futures by the elevator merchandizers-
The merchandizer and the warehouseman..
The problem of earning carrying charges---
CHAPTER IV.-VOLUME OF FUTURE TRADING
Sec. 1. Character of analysis..
Data for period prior to 1918-
Internal Revenue Bureau data---
The grouping of clearing-house members for tabulation --
2. Volume of transactions in futures---
Totals on the Chicago Board of Trade---
Curves showing variations of transactions and of open trades
at Chicago, 1915–1917 and 1920–1923_
Future transactions at Chicago by grains_-
Future transactions at Chicago by options_-
Other futures markets compared with the Chicago Board
Foreign grain futures markets—Liverpool--
Foreign grain futures markets-Winnipeg----
Values involved in all commodity future trades in the
Ratio of grain future trade to crops, etc---
3. Variations in the volume of trading-
Seasonal changes in future trading--
Subsidence of future trading in delivery months_-
Changes in speculative activity between different grains_-
Correlation between speculative interests and hedging re-
Disturbing factors in the variation of the volume of futures--